Monday, August 1, 2011

Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #16

Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong) is moving closer to Okinawa while showing signs of improvement in the structure. It seems that the Eyewall Replacement Cycle (EWRC) that began less than 24 hours ago is almost complete. A recent SSMI-S microwave image shows the eyewall is almost formed and the old inner eyewall is now gone. Colder cloud tops are also beginning to appear in the infra-red image.

Latest IR image from NRLMRY

Forecast remains the same with models still showing a large disparity in the track for 2-3 days. We are still sticking with our earlier call of Muifa brushing Okinawa by late Thursday. The recent development with Muifa's eyewall could open for one more burst of intensification in the next 12 to 24 hours. Conditions are still favorable with wind shear decreasing slightly (10-15kts).

We will have our next text update with video at around 3pm (Philippine Time).
Issued (2230 UTC) 730am PhT 080211

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