Sunday, July 31, 2011

Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #14

Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) has weakened slightly over the Philippine Sea. It was last located approximately 1,250km east southeast of Basco, Batanes. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to 220kph gusting to 270kph. Muifa is moving northward at 15kph.

Typhoon Muifa continues to exhibit fluctuations in intensity and haven't really been able to regain that strength it had 36 hours ago. The eye is barely visible on the satellite while an irregular eye appears on the IR. A recent microwave image shows the eyewall being disrupted a little bit on the northern side. Northerly shear has slightly increased near Muifa which is now around 15kts. Furthermore, a trough is still causing subsidence eroding the northern side despite the good dual-channel outflow.

Sea surface temperatures are still high in the area and the wind shear isn't that particularly detrimental. We still expect Muifa to strengthen again, perhaps peaking at around 130kts (240kph) by Tuesday.

Forecast tracks still has good spread although consensus remains to be a track near or at Okinawa.

We will have another update by 3pm today.
Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 080111

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