Sunday, July 31, 2011

TY Muifa (Kabayan) | Invest 97W (Lando) Update

Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) is slightly looking better in the past 3 hours. The upper level trough that has been eroding the northern half of the system is moving away and latest microwave image also suggests that an eyewall replacement cycle might be happening (if not done already).

Muifa was last located approximately 1,250km east northeast of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds remain at 230kph gusting to 280kph. Muifa is moving northeastward at 15kph.

Eye has reappeared on infra-red with cloud tops cooling again. Real time ADT numbers also showing a steady rise. Conditions remain very favorable so if this present trend continues, we could see Muifa make a run at that super typhoon intensity again.

IR image for TY Muifa from RAMMB-CIRA (NOAA)

Meanwhile, the low pressure area west of Luzon has been upgraded into a tropical depression by PAGASA, giving it a local name of bagyong "Lando". Please note that JMA is also classifying this as a TD but is not issuing warnings on their typhoon page. JTWC, meanwhile, continues to classify this system as a low pressure area or invest.

Convection is sparse and winds aren't that strong yet. However, pressure reports from Subic and Clark show a slight decrease in the past 6 hours. Nevertheless, the system will continue bringing moderate rain to parts of Luzon, as well as enhancing that SW monsoon.
Issued (1430 UTC) 10:30pm PhT 073111

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