Wednesday, July 13, 2011

Typhoon Ma-On Update #6 w/ Video

You will find the video update at the end of this text update.

Ma-On has been upgraded to a typhoon a few hours ago and is still intensifying as it moves across the Western Pacific. Maximum sustained are now at 150kph with gusts of as high as 180kph which puts Ma-On as a Category 1 typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. TY Ma-On is moving westward at 20kph.

As of 3am today (Philippine Time), the National Weather Service (NWS) in Guam has upgraded the Tropical Storm Watch into a Tropical Storm Warning for the islands of Pagan, Agrihan, and Alamagan in the Northern Mariana Islands. These islands should expect winds of as high as 65kph beginning later this afternoon. Rain squalls and rough waves should also be expected.

Typhoon Ma-On will continue to intensify as the upper-levels are looking more and more favorable. As for the track, computer models are becoming in better agreement, with most models showing either a Kyushu or Shikoku landfall as early as Tuesday (Japan Time), although UKMET continues to show an erroneous straight runner towards Taiwan. ECMWF has backed away from the very strong typhoon it was showing for the past 2 days. However, given the conditions right, we do expect Ma-On to have some sort of Rapid Intensification, perhaps become a major Category 3 typhoon as early as Friday or Saturday.

A developing disturbance in the Philippine Sea (Invest 92W) continues to show improving low level activity. ASCAT pass picked up a weak low-level circulation of this system. Depending on the proximity to Ma-On and the intensities of these two systems, 92W could influence Ma-On's track so we have to monitor this LPA as well.

Our in-depth text update with our exclusive forecast track will be posted at around 3pm Philippine Time, so stay tuned!

Video Update showing warnings, forecasts, and tracks:

Issued (21 UTC) 5am PhT 071411

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