Sunday, July 3, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 94W continues to develop near Palau, east of Mindanao. ASCAT pass shows a weak circulation with 20-40kph winds. Koror airport is reporting west southwesterly winds of about 20kph and a pressure of 1007mb. This LPA remains in a favorable environment with warm SSTs and low to moderate wind shear. JTWC has upgraded the probability to "MEDIUM".

Computer models are also beginning to pick up the potential storm. With forecast tracks generally to the north. ECMWF, however, continues to show a very interesting track. Forecasting it to move east of Luzon then stall and turn westward, moving across Luzon Strait into South China Sea (West Philippine Sea).

Invest 95W, embedded in the ITCZ, continues to affect Palawan, Visayas, and Mindanao. This particular LPA is not expected to develop however.

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 070311

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