Saturday, July 2, 2011

Tropical Update

We are currently tracking two low pressure areas, one near Palawan and the other in the Philippine Sea near Palau.

Invest 94W is within 100km of Palau and is embedded in the monsoon trough. ASCAT pass shows a fairly weak low level circulation center although latest IR image shows convective activity is still sparse. JTWC has upgraded the potential of this LPA to "Low". CMC and ECMWF are showing this to develop into a cyclone in as early as two days. CMC has the more aggressive solution although both models keep the storm away from the Philippines.

Invest 95W meanwhile, within the ITCZ, was last located near Palawan. Convective activity is relatively better compared to 94W although no models are picking this particular LPA up yet.
Due to the presence of ITCZ, expect scattered thunderstorms to continue especially in Visayas and Mindanao. Most of Northern Luzon is actually experiencing fair weather.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 070211

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