Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Formerly Bagyong Juaning) is moving across the South China Sea (West Philippine Sea), well south of Hong Kong. Nock-Ten was last located approximately 450km south of Hong Kong. Maximum sustained winds are still around 85kph gusting to 110kph. Nock-Ten is moving west northwestward at 25kph.
Outer rainbands are now actually making their way just east of Hainan. Furthermore, Hong Kong radar is also picking up the outer bands but they are not expected to hit the region. Latest IR and VIS image shows a huge circulation with the strongest of convective activity on the western side of the center. Nock-Ten is in a low to moderate wind shear as well as high sea surface temperatures. It is still expected to strengthen, perhaps to a Typhoon intensity before making landfall in Hainan.
We are forecasting TS Nock-Ten to make landfall in Hainan, near Qionghai, tomorrow midday (Friday) Philippine Time. It will then traverse the northern part of the island and then exiting into the Gulf of Tonkin late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Nock-Ten will then make a second landfall in Northeastern Vietnam by early Sunday morning (Philippine Time), about 150km southeast of Hanoi. It should rapidly weaken as it moves over Vietnam on Sunday.
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Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 072811
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