Video update for TS Nock-Ten and TD 11W will be up at around 4pm.
Tropical Storm Nock-Ten (Juaning) has remained almost stationary for the past 6 hours. It was last located just 80km east northeast of Daet, Camarines Norte.Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 90kph.
Cloud tops around Juaning's center have warmed significantly for the past six hours. This may be due to land interaction as the storm moves just north of Bicol Region. The central dense overcast surrounding the center remains good, however. Light to moderate rain continue to affect much of Central and Southern Luzon and Visayas; precipitation is now also moving northward towards North and Eastern Luzon.
We are still expecting Juaning to slightly strengthen as it moves across the Philippine Sea since wind shear and SSTs remain conducive for further intensification. We will have to watch the effects of interaction with land though. We are forecasting a landfall near Dingalan, Aurora by midnight tonight. Sustained winds of up to 80kph gusting to 100kph should be expected near Juaning's center as it moves across land. It will then weaken to a tropical depression as it passes through Nueva Ecija, Tarlac, and Pangasinan. By Thursday morning, it should be moving across the Lingayen Gulf on its way to the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea).
Please keep in mind that Juaning's movement can change every hour so it is possible that Juaning will make landfall in either Northern Quezon or Isabela, instead. Always tune in to your local news channel/radio station for the latest updates on possible shifts in the forecast track.
We will have our next written update by 12 midnight tonight. Our video update for today, meanwhile, will be up at around 430pm.
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Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 072611
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