Friday, July 29, 2011

Tropical Storm Muifa (Kabayan) Update #7

Tropical Storm Muifa (Bagyong) Kabayan continues to move inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility but is staying well away from the country as of the moment. It was last located approximately 860km east of Catarman, Samar. Maximum sustained winds are at 95kph gusting to 120kph. Muifa is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

Computer models are still far away from a good consensus. However, it is certain that Muifa will totally avoid making any direct impact to the Philippines. Aside from enhancing the SW Monsoon, it will probably create strong waves for the Eastern Seaboard, particularly in Luzon and Bicol Region.

Based on the trends and latest model outputs, Muifa could become a typhoon as early as Sunday. It is forecast to move out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Tuesday. As for the eventual track, I would say that anywhere from Taiwan all the way to Southern Japan (Kyushu and Shikoku) must continue to keep an eye on this storm. With that said, it will still be more than 5 days away so expect some major shifts in the track as time goes on.

Our video updates for both Nock-Ten and Muifa will be posted in about half an hour.
Issued (08 UTC) 4pm PhT 072911

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