Wednesday, July 20, 2011

Tropical Storm Ma-On Update #19 w/ Video

Tropical Storm Ma-On has exited the Kii Peninsula and is now moving south of the island of Honshu. It was last located approximately 190km south of Nagoya. Maximum sustained winds are at 100kph gusting to 150kph. Ma-On is moving east southeastward at 20kph.

Latest reports from JMA show improving conditions for much of Shikoku and Kansai (Kinki) regions. Moderate winds are still being reported though in Southern Honshu, especially along the coast. Radar also showing much of moderate rain is now offshore although some bands of moderate to heavy rain continue to make their way into Chubu and Kanto Regions, including the Tokyo Area.

Latest Radar image for Chubu and Kanto Regions from JMA

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For more radar images across Japan (From JMA), click HERE

As TS Ma-On moves south, expect improving conditions in terms of wind and precipitation. Rip-currents and strong waves will continue to be threats along the southern and eastern coast of Honshu all the way into the weekend.

Forecasts are in good agreement and we think Ma-On will continue moving southeastward, and by Thursday morning it will be well south of Tokyo, around 500km. It will then start turning northward by Friday and should begin extra tropical transition as early as Saturday.

TS Ma-On could re-intensify slightly by Thursday as it moves into relatively favorable conditions just south of Japan. But we don't really expect Ma-On to greatly affect Kanto region due to its proximity; just be mindful for the possibility of rains for the next two days.

Before we go today, I just want to note that the computer models continue to show the possibility of a weak cyclone forming in the Philippine Sea in 3 to 6 days' time. The models do seem to be confident so just keep it here for the latest as we will definitely continue monitoring the Western Pacific for then Tropical Storm threat!

Video Update

Issued (0830 UTC) 430pm PhT 072011

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