Saturday, July 30, 2011

Super Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #11

Super Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) is now at the end of its rapid intensification stage. One of the most explosive storms in recent memory, Muifa went from a 60kt-tropical storm into a full-blow 140-kt Category 5 Super Typhoon all in less than 24 hours!

The storm has an eye of about 20km in diameter, well-established outflows, an expanding cloud-dense overcast with -80C surrounding it. The temperature in the eye is estimated to be more than 5C warmer than the surrounding air and with an estimated minimum central pressure of about 910mb!

Muifa was last located approximately 980km east of Casiguran, Aurora. It has remained almost stationary in the past 12 hours with just slight shifts and trochoidal wobbles, mainly due to the weak steering environment. Muifa, though, is still expected to start turning northward once the ridge to the east strengthens. Muifa will have about 24 hours to reach peak intensity (if it hasn't reached it already) before it starts moving into an environment with lower Ocean Heat Content. Peak intensity is around 150-155kts of aobut 280-285kph (1-min sustained).

Latest image from RAMMB-CIRA of NOAA

Computer models are now coming into better agreement with the track. Latest run shows the consensus takes Muifa near or at OKINAWA by Thursday morning as a powerful super typhoon. Still, folks living from Taiwan to Shanghai to the Ryukyus need to keep an eye on this and monitor the web or their official agencies for possible shifts in the track.

Next update will be around 3pm today, as well as our final update for Nock-Ten now moving into Laos.
Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 073111

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