Saturday, July 30, 2011

Super Typhoon Muifa (Kabayan) Update #10

Please note that this is an off-hour special update based on the latest data coming in from different agencies. Once we get the 18z advisory, we may have to change the title and everything in here if necessary.

Latest Dvorak data from both PGTW and KNES suggest that Muifa continues to rapidly intensify and has broken every constraint on the Dvorak Technique. Adjusted data analysis put the storm as a Category 5 Super Typhoon. Muifa was last located approximately 980km east of Casiguran, Aurora. Maximum sustained winds are now at 260kph gusting to 295kph. Super Typhoon Muifa (Bagyong Kabayan) is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR and microwave images are showing a near-perfect and textbook-like typhoon with a pinhole eye and -80C cloud tops surrounding it. Dual-channel outflow, weak wind shear, and high sea surface temperatures are currently supporting the unusual rapid intensification.

Latest IR image from RAMMB-CIRA of NOAA

No major changes with the forecast except the intensity which has exceeded every guidance so far. Muifa has also shown continues wobbles, mainly to the west, which has brought it nearer to Luzon. This however, is just a result, of the weak steering environment that Muifa is in. It is still expected to move north in the next few hours, completely avoiding the Philippines. However, with the recent rapid intensification, there is a higher risk for rip currents and stronger waves that could affect the Eastern Seaboard of Luzon and Visayas.

Next update will be around 5am today to discuss the continuous intensification of Muifa. Remember that we are just basing this special update on the latest data that we got. Once the "true" advisories are out, you may see our information here will be changed (that is: we may downgrade Muifa to a Cat 4 typhoon and not as a super typhoon).
Issued (16 UTC) 12am PhT 073111

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