Wednesday, June 22, 2011

TS Haima Update #11|TS Meari (Falcon) Update #3

We are upgrading Haima into a tropical storm even though JTWC is classifying this as a depression. JMA and HKO is also classifying Haima as a tropical storm. IR and microwave images show improved banding and better convective activity compared to 12 hours ago. Furthermore, stations in Hong Kong continue to report 20-30kph winds from the east.

Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph; Haima is moving north northwestward at 10kph. Haima was last located approximately 180km south southwest of Hong Kong.

No significant changes with the forecast although the landfall time might be delayed a little due to the slower movement this past six hours. If the formation remains healthy, it could landfall as a weak tropical storm in Southwestern Guangdong (near Zhanjiang).

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Tropical Storm Meari (Falcon) has also strengthened this past six hours. Maximum Sustained winds are now at 75kph with gusts reaching up to 95kph. TS Meari was last located approximately 350km east of Virac, Catanduanes. The storm appears to have multiple circulation center, all rotating around a common point. This is making position reports from different weather agencies to vary a lot. Based on IR, there are about two bulks of convection, one affecting Eastern Visayas and the Bicol Region.

Because of these latest developments, PAGASA has raised Signal #1 at 5am for Albay, Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Group of Is., Babuyan Group of Is., Batanes Group of Is.

Track consensus among computer models remains good. JTWC and JMA shifted their forecast to the east (away from Taiwan), while PAGASA shifted theirs to the east, passing very close to Cagayan and brushing Northern Taiwan. Our forecast track remains the same. Intensification will be continuous although the presence of multiple circulations could affect the overall development of the storm.

Issued (22 UTC) 6am PhT 062311

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