Thursday, June 23, 2011

TD Haima Update #13|TS Meari (Falcon) Update #5

Haima has weakened to a tropical depression after making landfall yesterday afternoon. The system is now moving over the Gulf of Tonkin. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph; Haima is moving westward at 15kph.

Latest radar images from Haina still show light to moderate rain affecting parts of Guangdong Province. We expect that to gradually move towards Northern Vietnam in 1-2 days. Computer models and weather agencies still predict TD Haima (or its remnants) to reach Hanoi by Saturday morning.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Meari (Falcon) has strengthened a little bit as it accelerates towards the north. Microwave and IR images continue to suggest multiple circulations rotating around a common point, with the main convection slightly southwest of the "real" center.

We are expecting the convective bands to slowly start wrapping around that center, perhaps today. And because of the big wind field and circulation, gusty winds and rain are also affecting parts of Luzon. Rain reports from Manila and surrounding areas range from 100-200mm resulting to floods along major roads and low lying areas.

PAGASA, as of 5am, has kept Signal #1 for Calayan, Babuyan, and Batanes Group of Islands. All warnings have been dropped elsewhere.

Computer models and weather agencies are also in good agreement for this storm. The consensus show a track east of Taiwan, and west of Okinawa. Long range forecasts put this storm to the Yellow Sea, and could make a landfall in the Korean Peninsula as a transitioning extra tropical cyclone.

Issued (2200 UTC) 6am PhT 062311

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