Monday, May 9, 2011

TS Aere (Bebeng) Update #12

Tropical Storm Aere (Bagyong Bebeng) continues to move away from the country. It was last located about 100km north northeast of Basco, Batanes. Recent strength estimates based on satellite suggest maximum winds have increased slightly to 70kph. Aere is moving northward at around 20kph.

As of 11am, PAGASA still has Storm Signal Warning #1 for Basco, Batanes. All other signal warnings elsewhere have already been dropped.

We are forecasting TS Aere to continue moving to the north, before recurving to the northeast towards Okinawa. The timing depends on the approaching trough and the models generally are in good agreement on this. CMC and the UKMET models though are delaying Aere's turn that's why we are including Kyushu Island (mainland Japan) in our forecast cone. As for wind speeds, TS Aere could strengthen more in the next few hours (maybe to 70-80kph) before gradually weakening as it moves to cooler waters and more hostile environment.

Invest 94W is still poorly disorganized and the computer models are not showing strong development until this weekend or early next week (CMC and ECMWF).

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 051011

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