Wednesday, May 18, 2011

Tropical Update

Invest 98W still exists in the Pacific despite the lack of serious convection these past two days. The computer models are coming into agreement about a possible disturbance coming out of that area near Chuuk by Friday. GFS, CMC, NOGAPS, and the UKMET, all point to a storm developing and moving westward towards the Philippine Sea. The EURO though continues to delay the timing of a possible storm and instead shows a weak TS forming in Eastern Visayas next week. Of course nothing is certain with these model outputs so we will continue watching the Pacific for possible activity. We'll put the probability to "low" for now.

Issued (07 UTC) 3pm PhT 051811

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