Monday, May 16, 2011

Tropical Update

Not much going on in the Western Pacific today although there is a new low pressure area that has been spotted southwest of Chuuk in Micronesia.

Invest 98W is still disorganized although latest satellite images show convective activity continuing to flare up. Some computer models are picking up this system and forecasting it to become more organized in the next few days. UKMET and the CMC are the most bullish. ECMWF is also showing a tropical system forming but not until late this week. The said model is forecasting this storm to move westward, perhaps towards the Philippines. However, we have seen the ECMWF do this a few times this year and ended up being wrong so taking this latest computer run with a grain of salt, for now.

Issued (10 UTC) 4pm PhT 051611

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