Friday, October 15, 2010

Typhoon Megi Update #8

Typhoon Megi remains a category 2 typhoon with winds of up to 165kph and gusts reaching 205kph. Megi failed to strengthen this past six hours due to the somewhat unfavorable upper level conditions hindering Typhoon Megi's outflow. However, recent microwave satellite images show improved structure and are also showing an eyewall getting better organized.

On our last update, we mentioned the weakening in the subtropical ridge that is allowing Typhoon Megi to move northwest. Right now, Megi is still gaining latitude as it moves northwestwardly at 20kph. That could prove critical as to whether it will make landfall in Northern Luzon or not. We are still standing by our earlier forecast of an eventual turn to the west. Most computer models that we use are in agreement with this scenario (with the exception of the NOGAPS which recurves it to Okinawa). Intensity forecast remains the same as well--a possible super typhoon making landfall in North Luzon.

We should have a better handling on Typhoon Megi's track by morning.
Issued (17 UTC) 1am PST 101610

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