Thursday, October 14, 2010

Typhoon Megi Update #7

Typhoon Megi continues to intensify and has attained category 2 status. Maximum winds have increased to 165kph; gusts can reach up to 205kph. Typhoon Megi is moving west northwest at 15kph. The storm has become better organized and recent visible satellite images suggest that an eye is beginning to emerge. Megi is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility late tonight; it will adopt the local name "Juan".

The weakening of the subtropical ridge has allowed Typhoon Megi to gain a little bit of latitude (now at ~14.5N). However, the ridge is forecast to rebuild in 24 hours; Megi will then return to a more westwardly track. Typhoon Megi will continue to intensify, becoming Category 3 tomorrow morning, and Category 4 by tomorrow evening. Computer models are pretty much in agreement with regards to track for the next 48 hours; however, they do diverge beyond that period. We have shifted our track a little bit to the north due to some of the models trending a little to the north. We still think that Megi will make landfall somewhere around Cagayan Province on Monday evening, perhaps as a super typhoon. Megi will significantly weaken as it crosses Northern Luzon, emerging in the South China Sea as a category 1 Tuesday morning.
We just want to note that PAGASA is now issuing hourly updates through Twitter.
Issued (7 UTC) 3pm PST 101510

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