The weakening of the subtropical ridge has allowed Typhoon Megi to gain a little bit of latitude (now at ~14.5N). However, the ridge is forecast to rebuild in 24 hours; Megi will then return to a more westwardly track. Typhoon Megi will continue to intensify, becoming Category 3 tomorrow morning, and Category 4 by tomorrow evening. Computer models are pretty much in agreement with regards to track for the next 48 hours; however, they do diverge beyond that period. We have shifted our track a little bit to the north due to some of the models trending a little to the north. We still think that Megi will make landfall somewhere around Cagayan Province on Monday evening, perhaps as a super typhoon. Megi will significantly weaken as it crosses Northern Luzon, emerging in the South China Sea as a category 1 Tuesday morning.

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Issued (7 UTC) 3pm PST 101510
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