Monday, October 25, 2010

Typhoon Katring (Chaba) Update #11

Typhoon Katring (Chaba) remains a category 1 typhoon although it has slightly strengthened over the past 6 hours. Maximum sustained winds are now at 130kph. The structure is becoming more and more organized and latest visual satellite images (as well as microwave images) show that an eye is starting to form; dry air, however, is still limiting rapid development.

There are no changes with the forecast although recent reports suggest that Typhoon Katring (Chaba) is moving more to the west northwest instead of moving northwest. With that said, we are still including Okinawa inside the forecast cone just in case this westward "wobble" continues. Outer rain bands will begin to affect the Southern Japanese islands sometime tonight into tomorrow. Rainfall rates of as much as 30 mm/hr may be embedded in these bands. A "cold surge" from Northeast Asia is bringing gusty winds and cooler temperatures to the region; together with the strengthening Typhoon Chaba, the tight gradient will produce very strong winds for the Okinawa and the neighboring islands.

Typhoon Katring (Chaba) is forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Friday. Chaba should reach a peak strength of about 160-170kph which is equivalent to category 2 strength. It will then weaken as it starts to undergo extra-tropical transition before moving into the southern part of mainland Japan next week.

Issued (0530 UTC) 130pm PhT 102610

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