Wednesday, October 20, 2010

Typhoon Juan (Megi) Update #24

Typhoon Juan (Megi) continues to move slowly northward. It is expected to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility within the next 3-6 hours.

Juan was last located 380km NW of Dagupan City. Juan remains a Category 4 typhoon; maximum winds at 215kph and gusts reaching up to 240kph. Typhoon Juan (Megi) is forecast to continue moving northward towards Southern China. Computer models have continued to shift towards the east throughout the day today and so we are shifting our forecast track towards the east. Typhoon Megi is now forecast to make landfall east of Hong Kong, somewhere near Shantou (China). The JMA and the JTWC differs on the timing with regard to landfall so we might have to adjust the times indicated in our forecast.

As for the strength, we expect Typhoon Megi to continue strengthening slowly. Water vapor imagery shows dry air near the core is still hindering significant strengthening. Moreover, Megi is expected to encounter increasing vertical wind shear over the next 2-3 days, as well as relatively cooler waters, so it may peak at being a category 4 before weakening to a category 3 just before landfall.

Image from the CIMSS (University of Wisconsin) shows the weakening of the subtropical ridge allowing TY Megi to move northward.

Issued (0730 UTC) 330pm PhT 102010

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