Monday, October 18, 2010

Typhoon Juan (Megi) Update #22

Typhoon Juan maintains its strength as it tries to reform and restrengthen out in the South China Sea. Juan has remained almost stationary for the past 6 hours; it was last located approximately 190km west northwest of Daguapan City (12pm PhT). Juan has maximum sustained winds of about 165kph with gusts reaching up to 205kph.

Since making landfall yesterday, Typhoon Juan's core has become disorganized and its windfield expanded a bit. But it looks like Juan wants to strengthen again as soon as possible. Latest satellite images are already showing a visible eye, as well as convection flaring again on the southern half of the storm.

There are still uncertainties with regard to the medium-range forecast although the forecast cone has gotten smaller. Megi is still forecast to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Wednesday as a Category 3 typhoon. It will continue tracking northwestward as the sub tropical ridge to the north weakens. Nothing is definite yet but it looks like Typhoon Megi will make landfall not too distant from Hong Kong.

Issued (0530 UTC) 130pm PhT 101910

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