Wednesday, October 13, 2010

Tropical Storm Megi Update #4

The strengthening of Tropical Storm Megi has slowed down a bit this past six hours. Maximum sustained winds only increased by about 5kph and is now at 100kph; gusts could reach up to 130kph. Tropical Storm Megi is moving west northwest at 15kph. However, latest recon data suggest that Megi might be undergoing another burst of intensification.

We are now posting the preliminary forecast track. No significant changes overall with the forecasts from different agencies although computer models have been trending south so part of Visayas is included in the "cone of uncertainty" with regard to Megi's future track. Landfall is not forecast to occur until early next week so the track is not yet final. As for the intensity, TS Megi will be staying in the open waters of the Philippines for many days which should allow it to undergo rapid intensification. RI is likely to occur in the next 24-48 hours. By tonight, TS Megi is expected to be upgraded into a typhoon. As mentioned earlier, Luzon and Visayas need to monitor this system closely as it could these areas significantly next week.

Next update will be at 12 midnight (PST).
Issued (06 UTC) 2pm PST 101410

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