Tuesday, March 23, 2010

TS 02W Warning #4

Tropical Storm Two continues to move northwestward but is having difficulty developing due to strong vertical wind shear. Latest satellite reports indicate the circulation center has "decoupled" (taken from JTWC) a bit away from the convection. Forecasts have not changed--we still expect TS 02W to strengthen a bit as it enters PAR Wednesday morning (Philippine time). A weather front will pass through the area which will allow the system to turn more northwardly. Numerical models show a weakening by Friday, eventually dissipating late this week. Unfortunately we are not expecting significant rainfall from this storm, although we're still looking at light to moderate rain to fall across parts of Eastern Luzon and the Visayas Areas (mostly due to the mid-latitude trough).

Issued 322amPST 032410

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