Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Typhoon Parma, TS18W, and TS20W

0300z (11am 0930 PST) Typhoon Parma

Tropical Storm 19W has strengthened further and has been upgraded to a typhoon. Maximum sustained winds are now at 120kph with gusts at around 150kph. Strengthening will still continue and may become a very strong typhoon (if not a minimal super typhoon) in the coming days. The path of the storm is still unclear as forecast models will still continue to shift the system in each runs. A general forecast though is for this system to absorb the weakening TS18W and continue to move WNW and eventually turn to the NW. That means, as of the latest model guidance, Typhoon Parma (Pepeng) will not directly affect Metro Manila. It may, however, brush Northeast Luzon

Tropical Storm 18W

TS18W has maintained its intensity of about 64kph. However, it will slowly weaken as the stronger system--TY Parma--will continue to pull 18W. It will eventually be absorbed by TY Parma in the next 24-48 hours.

Tropical Storm 20W

TS 20W now has an international name of "Melor." It has sustained winds of about 74kph. The system is still east of Guam and will not be a threat to the Philippines in the short term. Gradual Intensification is expected with a movement to the WNW. However, as TY Parma is gathering strength, it could influence TS Melor's movement causing it to move more to the west.

This is just the summary of the latest weather bulletins released at around 11am PST. Maps showing the current positions of the system, as well as their forecasted tracks and intensity will be posted in the coming hour or two.

093009 125pm PST (525 UTC)

No comments:

Post a Comment