Monday, July 13, 2015

Typhoon Nangka Update #1

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 071415
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Typhoon Nangka is the 11th named cyclone to form this year in the Western Pacific Basin. Typhoon Nangka formed back in July 3 and has spent most of its life away from populated areas which is why we haven't been able to post any updates to this storm (combined with the fact that we were too busy with Tropical Cyclones Chan-Hom and Linfa). Now, Typhoon Nangka is becoming more interesting as it could threaten Mainland Japan later this week.

The eye of Nangka was last located approximately 950km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Nangka is currently moving northward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

 
Typhoon Nangka is currently moving across the Philippine Sea. Its intensity has been fluctuating recently as it is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Latest satellite analysis actually suggest that the cycle is finishing with a new, much larger, eyewall beginning to take over. We expect Nangka to slowly re-intensify as the region is still favorable for tropical cyclone development.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

 
Based on the latest outputs from the numerical models, as well as the current state of the atmosphere in the Pacific, we are forecasting a general northward track for Nangka. It will slightly bend northwestward by Thursday as the Subtropical Ridge assumes control in the steering. By Friday morning, Nangka is forecast to make landfall in the island of Shikoku in Japan as a strong Category 2 Typhoon. Heavy rains, strong winds, and high waves will be threatening the region throughout this period as the storm moves north. Nangka will rapidly lose strength as it tracks over Japan but stormy conditions will linger throughout the weekend.

If you live in Shikoku and nearby areas, please monitor the latest warnings and bulletins from your local officials. Start preparing emergency supplies and other plans in case you are on, or near, the path of Typhoon Nangka.

We'll have another update later this evening. Stay safe!

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