Wednesday, July 1, 2015

Tropical Depression 10W (Egay) Update #1

Issued (0330 UTC) 1130am PhT 070215

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Aside from Tropical Storm Chan-Hom, we're now monitoring a new cyclone in the Western Pacific. Tropical Depression 10W (Bagyong Egay)is currently developing over the Philippine Sea. The center of the depression was last located approximately 870km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD 10W is currently moving north northwestward at 10kph.

PAGASA has not issued any Public Storm Warning Signals yet but residents in the region are advised to monitor updates from the weather agency.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows convective activity starting to become more organized, especially towards the circulation center. TD 10W is located in an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. While upper-level patterns are not the most conducive, we still expect TD10W to slowly intensify in the coming days.

Based on the latest computer model outputs, we expect Tropical Depression10W (Egay) to slowly move northward. Some models are showing a turn to the northwest which may put the cyclone towards Northern Luzon. This uncertainty in the forecast is due to the fact that Tropical Storm Chan-Hom (currently moving towards the Mariana Islands) is forecast to influence the eventual track of TD 10W. With that said, parts of Luzon should see unsettled weather for this weekend.

We'll continue to tweak our forecast and hopefully, as we gather more data, we'll be able to produce a more detailed outlook for the Philippines.

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