Sunday, March 29, 2015

Typhoon Maysak Update #5

Issued (03 UTC) 11am PhT 033015

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Maysak continues to intensify this morning and is now a Category 2 Typhoon. The system was last located approximately 540km south southeast of Guam or about 920km east southeast of Yap. Maximum sustained winds are now at 155kph with gusts of up to 195kph. Typhoon Maysak is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service in Guam has issued a Typhoon Warning for Fais, Ulithi, and Faraulep in the State of Yap. Winds of more than 74mph (120kph) are expected to occur in as little as 12 hours. Residents are advised to move to sturdy shelters away from the shoreline. Please coordinate with your local officials for warnings and emergency preparedness instructions. 

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IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows an eye is beginning to form surrounded by increasing convective activity. Maysak remains in a generally favorable environment with light to moderate wind shear, warm sea surface temperatures, and good radial outflow. We expect the system continue intensifying, attaining Category 3 status by tonight. It could even undergo a period of rapid intensification before moving near Yap.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our latest forecast track remains generally the same. We think Maysak will continue moving on a west-northwesterly trajectory over the next 3 to 4 days. It is forecast to move near the island of Yap by Tuesday morning as a strong and dangerous Category 4 Typhoon. Winds of up to 200kph are possible in the island.

By Thursday, Maysak is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility and will be given the local name 'Bagyong Chedeng' by PAGASA. Based on the conditions in the region, Maysak should slowly weaken as it moves into the Philippine Sea. Current track projections still diverge but the chances of a Philippine impact is becoming more likely. Whether or not Maysak remains a strong typhoon by then is still unknown at this time.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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