Tuesday, March 31, 2015

Super Typhoon Maysak (Chedeng) Update #7 (Video)

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 040115

WE ARE NOT AN OFFICIAL WEATHER AGENCY! For the latest Official Weather Bulletins from PAGASA, please click HERE

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For a more in-depth discussion on the current conditions and forecast for Maysak, please watch our Video Update below:

Super Typhoon Maysak (Bagyong Chedeng) has maintained its Category 5 intensity as it moves away from Yap State. The eye of Maysak was last located approximately 200km northwest of Yap or about 1,280km east of Borongan, Eastern Samar. Maximum sustained wins remain at 260kph with gusts of up to 315kph. STY Maysak is currently moving west northwestward at 20kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Maysak remains perfectly circular and symmetrical. Maysak underwent an eyewall replacement cycle overnight as it moved near the island of Yap. Cloud tops have warmed slightly this morning due to the EWRC. However, we expect a brief period of re-intensification overnight before finally weakening beginning Friday.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our forecast track for Maysak remains generally the same as computer models have converged on a possible Luzon landfall this weekend. Maysak is forecast to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by tomorrow morning (Thursday) by which time it will be given a local name of 'Bagyong Chedeng' by PAGASA.

Due to strong vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperatures, Maysak is forecast to weaken significantly before moving into the Philippines. Latest forecast consensus is showing a possible landfall somewhere in the Aurora or Isabela Provinces by early Sunday morning. Depending on the rate of weakening, Maysak may retain its strong typhoon-intensity as it makes landfall.

We urge everyone in the island of Luzon to continue monitoring the progress of Maysak. Please make sure to always coordinate with your local officials and PAGASA for the latest OFFICIAL warnings and weather bulletins.

We'll have another update later tonight. Stay safe!

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