Sunday, November 30, 2014

Tropical Depression 22W Update #1

Issued (0530 UTC) 0130pm PhT 120114

Tropical Depression 22W has formed near the Caroline Islands this morning. The system was last located approximately 240km south southeast of Chuuk. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 22W is currently moving west northwestward at 25kph.

The National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Chuuk and a Typhoon Watch for Yap. Please continue monitoring the latest advisories and warnings from your local officials.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows TD 22W consolidating rather quickly. Convection is increasing and banding is tightening around the low-level center. TD 22W is in a highly favorable environment with weak wind shear and good upper-level pattern. It is highly likely to be upgraded into a Tropical Storm later this afternoon and possibly become a Typhoon by Wednesday or Thursday.

So far, computer models are split as to the eventual track of TD 22W. However, the Micronesian Islands (especially Yap State) should continue to closely monitor the developments of this cyclone as it could potentially affect the region in the next few days.

We'll have another update later tonight.

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