Wednesday, September 17, 2014

Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (Mario) Update #1

Issued (0130 UTC) 930am PhT 091814

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The 16th named Tropical Cyclone in the Western Pacific formed in the Philippine Sea this morning. Tropical Storm Fung-Wong (Bagyong Mario) continues to slowly develop as it moves close to the Philippine Islands. The system was last located approximately 480km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 810km east of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Fung-Wong is moving west northwestward at 25kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Fung-Wong slowly developing east of the Philippines. Convective activity is strong but is still somewhat fragmented. The circulation centers remain displaced as well. However, Fung-Wong is in a much more conducive environment than Kalmaegi was so we're expecting continued and steady intensification over the next few days.

The system is also beginning to bring widespread rains across Luzon and Visayas. Some places, such as Cebu, have seen torrential rains this morning forcing the government to cancel all classes in city. Light to moderate rains will linger in the region over the next 24 to 48 hours and will spread north towards Central and Northern Luzon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is situated left of the consensus and is more aligned with the EURO and
UKMET computer models. We're forecasting Fung-Wong to continue moving generally west northwestward and bring periods of rain across the Philippines. It will also likely intensify into a Typhoon by Friday as it moves near Northern Luzon. Fung-Wong could also make landfall in Northern Luzon that is why much of the island is still under our cone of uncertainty. Either way, expect stormy conditions to linger especially along the coastal sections of Eastern Luzon.

We'll have another update later today.

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