Monday, July 28, 2014

Tropical Depression 11W Update #1

Issued (0030 UTC) 830am PhT 072914

A new Tropical Cyclone has developed over the Western Pacific this morning. Tropical Depression 11W was last located approximately 430km east southeast of Guam or about 450km southeast of Saipan. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD 11W is moving northwestward at 10kph.

As of 8am this morning, the National Weather Service has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Guam, Rota, Tinian, and Saipan. This Watch is for the potential for Tropical Storm conditions within the next 48 hours. Residents are advised to take precautionary measures and to always stay on top of the news and warnings from your local officials.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a rapidly developing cyclone with convective banding wrapping around a broad low-level circulation center. Radial outflow is also good and has been instrumental with the recent improvement in the organization of TD 11W. Outer bands are also starting to move into the Marianas Islands and the areas there, including Guam, could start seeing light rains later this afternoon.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression 11W is located in an area with weak steering environment. It will be moving slowly northwestward over the next few days. It will move between Guam and Saipan by tomorrow (Wednesday) as a possible Tropical Storm. TD 11W will also be moving across favorable area and could become a Typhoon later this week as it moves into the Philippine Sea. After the Mariana Islands, we have little confidence on where this system will eventually end up. We'll keep updating our forecasts as soon as we get more information.

We'll have another update later today.

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