Saturday, November 9, 2013

Typhoon Haiyan Update #15

Issued (2330 UTC) 730am PhT 111013

Typhoon Haiyan (Formerly Bagyong Yolanda) continues to weaken as it nears Hainan and Vietnam. The storm center was last located approximately 410km south of Haikou, Hainan or about 720km southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are now down to 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph making Haiyan a strong Category 2 Typhoon. It is currently moving west northwestward at 35kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the central dense overcast remaining strong and symmetrical. However, the eye is no longer visible and the core is also becoming worse as the waters near Vietnam are no longer warm enough to support strong cyclones. Nevertheless, there is still ample outflow which is helping to slow down the intensification trend.

Typhoon Haiyan will move near Hainan Island later this morning bringing strong winds, heavy rains, and high waves especially along the southern portions of the island. Parts of Northern and Central Vietnam will also begin to see light to moderate rains later today as the system moves closer. Haiyan will continue moving generally northwestward and could make landfall in Northern Vietnam later this evening as a Category 1.

Despite the weakening, we urge everyone in Vietnam, especially in Hanoi, to please remain alert and heed the warnings of your local officials! The angle of approach of Haiyan will bring massive amounts of rainfall and even storm surge along the coast. While not as bad as the Philippines, a water rise of up to 4 feet is still expected putting the entire Red River Delta at risk. Furthermore, rainfall accumulations of up to 300mm could bring widespread flooding in the region.

We'll have another update later this afternoon regarding the impacts in the Philippines as well as the developing disturbance in the Western Pacific. Stay safe!

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