Sunday, November 10, 2013

Tropical Depression Zoraida Update #1

Issued (05 UTC) 1pm PhT 111113

The newly-formed Tropical Depression Zoraida remains weak and very disorganized as it moves quickly across the Philippine Sea. The center was last located approximately 340km southwest of Palau or about 770km east southeast of Davao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Zoraida is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 11am this morning, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Bohol, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Dinagat Island, Siargao Island, Agusan del Norte, Agusan del Sur, Surigao del Norte, Surigao del Sur, Davao Oriental, Davao del Norte, Samal Island, Bukidnon, Misamis Oriental, and Camiguin Island.

These areas will experience breezy conditions with winds of up to 60kph. Widespread light to moderate rains will also impact the areas mentioned.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a very disorganized Tropical Depression with very little convective activity and an elongated low-level circulation center. TD Zoraida is in a somewhat favorable environment but its fast forward speed is preventing it from really intensifying. However, the system can still bring rains across parts of Mindanao and Visayas in the next two days.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Our preliminary forecast track is showing Zoraida maintaining Tropical Depression intensity in the next two days. It will likely make landfall in Mindanao, south of the city of Surigao, by tomorrow morning (Tuesday). Light to moderate rains should be expected across the region. Zoraida will then move into Visayas affecting Bohol, Cebu, Negros, and nearby islands. It will exit into Palawan by Wednesday and could become a Tropical Storm by then.

We'll have another update later today.

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