Tuesday, November 5, 2013

Super Typhoon Haiyan Update #4

Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 110613

Haiyan continues to rapidly intensify and is now a Category 4 Super Typhoon! The eye of the storm was last located 210km south southeast of Yap or about 420km east of Palau. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 240kph with gusts of up to 295kph. STY Haiyan is moving westward at 30kph.

The National Weather Service continues to issue several Typhoon Warnings and Watches across parts of Palau and Yap Islands. Please heed the warnings of your local officials, especially if you live in areas susceptible to flooding and storm surges. For the latest warnings from NWS, please click HERE

IR Image from FNMOC

Super Typhoon Haiyan continues to intensify as it nears the islands of Yap and Palau. The pinhole eye is surrounded by strong convective activity and good radial outflow. The system is also undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle which should finish by tonight. Favorable conditions exist along the storm's path and we expect continuous intensification over the next 24 hours.

Outer rain bands are also beginning to affect Yap. Strong winds of up to 120kph are possible especially in the southern tip of Yap. Weather conditions will also deteriorate for Palau beginning later tonight and last through tomorrow. Heavy rains with accumulations of up to 200mm are possible as well. Finally, the threat of storm surges of up to 3feet could also prove dangerous along coastal areas.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Super Typhoon Haiyan will continue to intensify as it moves near Yap and Palau. It will enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility later tonight and will be given a local name of Bagyong Yolanda by PAGASA. Haiyan could become a Category 5 Super Typhoon by tomorrow morning if it continues to intensify at this current rate.

Our forecast track above remains fixed on a landfall possibly in the southern half of Samar Island. We're looking at a landfall by early Friday morning. Destructive winds of more than 260kph are possible across Samar, Leyte, Dinagat, Biliran, and nearby islands. Haiyan will weaken slightly as it traverses across the islands in Visayas but will still bring very strong and dangerous winds across Cebu, Bohol, Negros, Panay, Romblon, Masbate, and nearby islands by Friday afternoon. It will then weaken to a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves into Mindoro Island by early Saturday morning.

Heavy rains will also stretch from Northern Mindanao, to much of Visayas, and into parts of Southern Luzon especially Bicol Region. Even Metro Manila and Palawan will not be spared by the storm. This is a very dangerous system and we urge everyone to please heed the warnings of your local officials! If you are in Samar and Leyte Islands, please prepare now by stocking up on food and water and if possible, seek shelter in safer locations away from rivers and landslide-prone areas.

We'll continue updating over the next two days so please keep it right here. Stay safe!

No comments:

Post a Comment