Issued (0430 UTC) 1230pm PhT 102113
Francisco has weakened to a Category 3 Typhoon after undergoing an eyewall replacement last night. The eye of Francisco was last located approximately 1,100km southeast of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are down to 205kph with gusts of up to 250kph. Typhoon Francisco is currently moving north northwestward at 10kph.
IR Image from FNMOC
Francisco successfully completed an eyewall replacement cycle last night and the latest satellite image above shows that the eye has reappeared. Convection remains strong as well and the core of the typhoon seems to have recovered this morning. However, we no longer expect any significant re-intensification due to the fact that sea temperatures will start to decrease as Francisco continues to move northward.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
We have shifted our forecast track a little bit to the left and we now expect Francisco to move much closer to Okinawa than we previously thought. The good news, though, is that Francisco should continue to weaken from now on but it may still bring strong winds and heavy rains across Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands beginning tomorrow evening (Tuesday) and into Wednesday.
Francisco should, then, recurve to the northeast and could approach Mainland Japan by Friday as a weakening Category 1 Typhoon. Strong winds, high waves, and heavy rains will impact Kyushu, Shikoku, and Honshu during this time. The big cities of Osaka, Nagoya, and Tokyo will also be affected by stormy conditions as Francisco moves northeastward.
We'll have another update later tonight.