Thursday, October 17, 2013

Typhoon Francisco Update #3

Issued (1430 UTC) 1030pm PhT 101713

Typhoon Francisco continues to intensify as it meanders near the Marianas Islands. The eye was last located approximately 200km southwest of Guam. Maximum sustained winds have increased to  155kph with gusts of up to 195kph making Francisco a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Scale. Typhoon Francisco is currently moving northward at 10kph.

The National Weather Service continues to issue Tropical Storm Warning for Guam due to the possibility of sustained winds of 65kph or stronger in the next 24 to 48 hours. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Watches are posted for Rota, Tinian, and Saipan.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows the eye of Francisco continuing to look much more organized and symmetrical. Convective activity is also increasing around the center. Radial outflow has also improved significantly today. Bands of light to moderate rains continue to move from the south to the north impacting parts of the Marianas. Guam could see as much as 50mm of rain tonight and into tomorrow. For the latest radar images, please click HERE (NWS Guam).

Typhoon Francisco is forecast to undergo a period of rapid intensification due to the very favorable environment that exists in the region. It could become a Category 3 Major Typhoon by tomorrow and could even become a Super Typhoon by the weekend.

Forecast tracks remain generally the same and we expect Francisco to continue on a northerly heading before turning to the northwest by tomorrow. It will continue moving across the Philippine Sea over the next two to three days and will then begin to turn northward, just like what Wipha did last time.
We’ll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

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