Sunday, October 6, 2013

Typhoon Danas (Ramil) Update #1

Issued (09 UTC) 5pm PhT 100613

Typhoon Danas continues to intensify as it enters the Philippine Area of Responsibility and earns the local name "Bagyong Ramil." Typhoon Danas/Ramil was last located approximately 770km southeast of Okinawa, Japan. Maximum sustained winds are now at 150kph with gusts of up to 185kph. Typhoon Danas is moving northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from FNMOC

Latest satellite image shows a very symmetrical storm with good radial outflow and strong convective activity. Danas is currently undergoing eyewall replacement cycle and at times, has shown its eye on the visible image. We expect the eyewall replacement cycle to be completed tonight allowing the system to undergo another round of intensification, taking advantage of the favorable conditions in the Philippine Sea.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Danas will continue moving quickly to the northwest. It will also continue intensifying and could become a Category 2 later tonight. Depending on how quickly it completes the eyewall replacement cycle, there is a small chance of Danas actually reaching Category 3 as it nears the Ryukyu Island. Computer models are in very good agreement as to the short term track of Danas and that is why we have somewhat of a high confidence of a track near Okinawa and Amami Islands by tomorrow afternoon (Monday). How close Danas will get to one of these islands is still up in the air. What we can say though is that Okinawa and the rest of the Ryukyu Islands should expect another stormy weather beginning tomorrow morning and lasting through Tuesday.

Danas is forecast to eventually recurve around the subtropical ridge. It could also impact Kyushu Island by Tuesday as a weakening typhoon. Danas will then encounter strong westerlies and the baroclinic zone and will undergo extra-tropical transition as it moves into the Sea of Japan.

We'll have another update on Danas tomorrow morning.

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