Wednesday, September 18, 2013

Tropical Storm Usagi (Odette) Update #4

Issued (12 UTC) 8pm PhT 091813

Tropical Storm Usagi (Bagyong Odette) continues to intensify and is now nearing Typhoon Statues. The storm was last located approximately 700km northeast of Virac or about 960km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds have increased further to 110kph with gusts of up to 140kph. TS Usagi is moving westward at 10kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows an eye is beginning to form surrounded by strong convective activity wrapping around the center. Usagi remains in an area of favorable conditions with warm sea surface temperatures, low wind shear, and improving radial outflow. Microwave image also confirms that an eyewall is forming and has rapidly improved in the past 6 hours.

Tropical Storm Usagi (Odette) is expected to be upgraded to a Typhoon by early tomorrow morning. Computer models continue to show a track just south of Taiwan. Continued intensification will probably lead to Usagi becoming a Category 3 Major Typhoon by Friday. Furthermore, the proximity of the system could lead to stormy conditions being felt across Northern Luzon while the southwest monsoon will bring scattered to widespread across parts of Southern Luzon and Visayas.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning.

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