Monday, September 16, 2013

Tropical Depression Usagi (Odette) Update #1

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 091713

A new Tropical Cyclone has formed just east of the Philippines today. Tropical Depression Usagi, local name of Bagyong Odette, is currently moving across the Philippine Sea and was last located approximately 1,160km east northeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds are at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TD Usagi is moving westward at 15kph.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows a cyclone that is in its early stages of development. The low-level center is partially exposed induced by moderate northerly shear. This shear is forecast to relax today allowing the system to continue intensifying. TD Usagi (Odette) is still far to really affect the Philippines. However, light rains could impact parts of Eastern Visayas due to the southwesterly flow.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Depression Usagi could become a Tropical Storm later today as it continues to move westward. Latest computer models are in somewhat good agreement with regards to the track of Usagi. Current consensus takes the cyclone just north of Luzon by Thursday and could become a Typhoon by Friday. Rains and strong winds could start impacting Northern Luzon by Thursday.

We'll have another update later today.

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