Friday, September 20, 2013

Super Typhoon Usagi (Odette) Update #8

Issued (0030 UTC) 830pm PhT 092013

Super Typhoon Usagi (Bagyong Odette) has slightly weakened as it undergoes eyewall replacement cycle. The eye of Usagi was last located approximately180km east of Basco, Batanes; 290km northeast of Aparri, Cagayan; or about 580km southeast of Taipei, Taiwan. Maximum sustained winds are down slightly to around 240kph with gusts of up to 305kph. STY Usagi is moving west northwestward at 20kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, PAGASA has raised Public Storm Warning Signal #4 for Batanes Group of Islands. Signal #3 for Calayan and Babuyan Group of Islands. Signal #2 is hoisted for Cagayan, Apayao, and Ilocos Norte while Signal #1 for Abra, Kalinga, Isabela, Northern Aurora, Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet, La Union, Ilocos Sur, Mt. Province, and Ifugao.

Taiwan has also Typhoon and Heavy Rain Warnings for different counties especially to the southern part of the island.

IR Image from NOAA

Latest satellite image shows that the small pinhole eye remains intact despite the eyewall replacement cycle that has been going on for the past 12 hours. The eye is still surrounded by strong convective activity and with good radial outflow. Further analysis does suggest that the outer eyewall continues to wrap around the existing core and should become more dominant later tonight. We expect the ERC to complete by tomorrow.

Radar Image from Aparri (PAGASA)

Meanwhile, latest radar image out of Aparri shows bands of widespread light to moderate rains continue to move from the north affecting Cagayan, Kalinga, Ilocos Norte, and nearby provinces. We're expect up to 100mm of rain to fall in the next 12 hours with some areas possibly receiving up to 200mm by tomorrow. Aside from the rains, winds of up to 80kph are already being recorded in Northern Luzon. The worst winds will be felt along the northern coast especially in the islands of Batanes, Calayan, and Babuyan where gusts of more than 250kph are likely! For the latest updates and warnings from PAGASA, please click HERE

Super Typhoon Usagi (Odette) will continue moving west northwestward tonight as it crosses into Luzon Strait. It will pass near Batanes Islands and will move just south of Taiwan. It will continue to weaken slightly as it undergoes eyewall replacement cycle although it should remain a formidable typhoon by tomorrow. We're getting more model consensus with the forecast track of this system and we're getting more confident that Usagi will pass near Hong Kong by early Monday morning as a strong Category 2, maybe even a Category 3, typhoon.

We'll have another update tomorrow morning. Stay safe!

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