Saturday, August 10, 2013

Typhoon Utor (Labuyo) Update #7

Issued (2230 UTC) 630am PhT 081113

11am: Western Pacific Weather having a Live Discussion on Typhoon Utor; click HERE for their YouTube page where you can post comments and ask questions!

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Typhoon Utor (Bagyong Labuyo) looks like it has stopped rapidly intensifying. However, it remains a strong Category 2 Typhoon. It was last located approximately 230km east northeast of Virac, Catanduanes or about 560km east southeast of Manila. Maximum sustained winds remain at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Utor has also begun to move west northwesterly with a speed of about 20kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has now raised Public Storm Warning Signal #3 for Catanduanes. Signal #2 is in effect for Isabela, Ifugao, Nueva Vizcaya, Nueva Ecija, Aurora, Quirino, Polillo Is., Camarines Norte, and Camarines Sur. Signal #1 for Cagayan, Calayan Group of Islands, Babuyan Group of Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur , Apayao, Kalinga, Abra, Mountain Province, Benguet, La Union, Pangasinan, Tarlac, Zambales, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Quezon, Cavite, Laguna, Batangas, Marinduque, Albay, Sorsogon, Burias, Ticao Islands,  and Metro Manila.

Catanduanes, which is under Signal #3, should expect typhoon winds of more 120kph within the next 12 to 24 hours. Along with the strong winds, heavy rains should also be expect that could accumulate to 200mm by tomorrow--increasing the likelihood of flooding and landslides.

For provinces under Signal #2 and #1, expect stormy conditions (winds below typhoon status) to affect the region today and into tomorrow. Winds could still be damaging especially along the coast and heavy rainfall is also a possibility.

Remember to remain vigilant with the approaching typhoon and always consult PAGASA and your local news stations for the latest warnings and advisories from your local officials!

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity is still present and an eye looks like its trying to finally come out. Utor has finally stopped intensifying although microwave analysis suggest that the eyewall is now fully established and it is very likely that we will see another round of intensification happening today.

Radar Image from Virac (PAGASA)

Meanwhile, latest radar image out of Virac, Catanduanes is finally showing Utor's center of circulation. Bands of light to moderate rains are now beginning to impact the Bicol Region and parts of Samar Island in Visayas. As mentioned above, we expect 200 to maybe even 300mm of rain falling along the eastern portions of Luzon today and into tomorrow. For the latest radar images and forecasts, please click HERE (PAGASA Website)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Utor will continue moving west northwestward and could intensify further into a Category 3 later today. It will pass near Catanduanes later this afternoon, bringing typhoon-force winds in the area. Heavy rains will then spread into Bicol and parts of Southern Luzon including Metro Manila. Typhoon Utor is forecast to make landfall early Monday morning, between the hours of 12 midnight and 4am Philippine Time. Landfall point is now looking more and more likely to happen near Casiguran in the province of Aurora!

We'll have more updates later today. Remember that our affiliate, Western Pacific Weather, we'll be having a Live Discussion at 11am today Philippine Time. Please visit their Facebook Page for more details.

Stay safe!

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