Monday, August 5, 2013

Tropical Depression 10W (Kiko) Update #1

Issued (01 UTC) 9am PhT 080613

A Tropical Depression (Bagyong Kiko) has formed last night inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility and is continuing to slowly intensify. Tropical Depression 10W has left the PAR earlier this morning and is now moving across the West Philippine Sea/South China Sea on its way towards Vietnam. It was last located approximately 700km south southeast of Haikou, Hainan or about 1,070km southeast of Hanoi, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are now at 55kph with gusts of up to 75kph. TS is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a slowly consolidating cyclone with strong convective activity forming near the low-level center. Further analysis also suggest banding trying to wrap around the said center. The cyclone is moving quite fast and we are already seeing arc clouds associated with the outflow approaching the island of Hainan. The coast of Central Vietnam is also beginning to see some light rains associated with this depression.

Tropical Depression 10W is forecast to continue moving on a northwesterly course towards Vietnam. It may move near the coast of Hainan by early tomorrow morning bringing widespread rains across the island. TD 10W is forecast to make landfall in Vietnam by early Thursday morning. Since it will continue to move over warm waters for at least another 24 hours, 10W is likely to become a moderate Tropical Storm before landfall.

We'll have another update later today.

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