Thursday, June 27, 2013

Tropical Depression Gorio (99W) Update #1

Issued (00 UTC) 8am PhT 062813

A new Tropical Depression has formed just east of the Philippines. Tropical Depression Gorio (Invest 99W) was last located approximately 490km east southeast of Surigao City. Maximum sustained winds are at 45kph with gusts of up to 65kph. TD Gorio is moving northwestward at 10kph.

As of 5am this morning, PAGASA has issued Public Storm Warning Signal #1 for Siargao Island, Dinagat Island, Northern Samar, Western Samar, and Eastern Samar.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a developing system with increasing convective activity. Banding has also become more organized and defined and continue to wrap around the low-level center. Rains brought by the depression are beginning to move into Eastern Visayas and Mindanao. Some areas here could get as much as 50mm of rainfall throughout the day today increasing the chances of flash floods and landslides.

Tropical Depression Gorio is moving across an area of low to moderate wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures. We expect the system to continue slowly intensifying today and could become a Tropical Storm as early as tomorrow. Computer model consensus is showing a track parallel to the Eastern Philippines. While chances of landfall are still low to medium, the chances of continuous rainfall is high especially across Mindanao and Visayas in the coming days.

We'll have another update later today.

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