Monday, January 7, 2013

Tropical Storm Sonamu Update #10

Issued (1030 UTC) 630pm PhT 010713

Tropical Storm Sonamu continues to struggle amid the strong wind shear in the South China Sea. The storm was last located approximately 500km south southeast of Ho Chi Minh, Vietnam. Maximum sustained winds are at 75kph with gusts of up to 95kph. TS Sonamu is moving southwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Sonamu struggling and is showing signs of weakening. The main convection continues to get sheared away from the low-level center. The area of convection has also decreased and is no longer affecting Southern Vietnam.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Tropical Storm Sonamu will continue to move southwestward tonight. It is forecast to weaken to a Tropical Depression by tomorrow afternoon. It is no longer expected to move into Malaysia but will, instead, turn southward into Riau Islands of Indonesia.


IR Image from NOAA

Meanwhile, Invest 94W is having difficulties consolidating and may not develop into a cyclone anymore. The LPA was last located approximately 580km southeast of Davao City and is moving westward at 10kph. The low-level center remains intact, so does the convection, but the entire structure hasn't really shown any improvements since yesterday.

Even if this low pressure area does not develop, it will still bring rains across parts of Mindanao and even into Visayas over the next two days. Parts of Southern and Eastern Mindanao could see up to 100mm of rain which can cause flooding and landslides. No other tropical disturbances are being watched as of this time.

We'll have another update tomorrow.

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