Tuesday, December 4, 2012

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) Update #19 [LANDFALL]

NOTE: For Video Update, click HERE. Please note that the Signal Warnings in the video are from 11am this morning. For the updated list of warnings (5pm), please scroll down below which also includes our Text Update and Forecast Track.

If you have any videos or photos to share, please email us at philippineweather@yahoo.com

Typhoon Bopha (Bagyong Pablo) is currently making its second landfall along the southern tip of Negros Island. The storm center was last located near the vicinity of Dumaguete City or about 90km southeast of Tagbilaran, Bohol or about 60km north of Dipolog City. Maximum sustained winds are at 165kph with gusts of up to 205kph. Typhoon Bopha is moving west northwestward at 30kph.

As of 5pm this afternoon, here are the latest Public Storm Warning Signals from PAGASA:
Signal #3: Northern Palawan incl. Calamian Grp. Of Islands, Bohol, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, Negros Oriental, Southern Negros Occidental, Iloilo, Guimaras, Antique, Lanao del Norte, Misamis Occidental, and Zamboanga del Norte.

Signal #2: Rest of Palawan, Aklan, Capiz, Rest of Cebu incl. Camotes Is., Rest of Negros Occidental, Misamis Oriental, Agusan del Norte, Bukidnon, Lanao del Sur, and Zamboanga del Sur incl. Sibugay.

Signal #1: Occidental Mindoro, Oriental Mindoro, Romblon, Leyte incl. Biliran, Southern Leyte, Surigao del Norte incl. Siargao, Surigao del Sur, Dinagat, Agusan del Sur, Davao del Norte, Compostela Valley, North Cotabato, and Maguindanao.

For areas in Eastern Mindanao, the worst is over. However, we will still see some light rains in that region. As for the islands in Visayas and Northern Palawan, if you think you live in a flood prone area, you need to start preparing and be ready to evacuate by tomorrow morning. Again, please coordinate with the officials on what to do in your area.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows Bopha moving into Negros Island. The central dense overcast remains intact despite hours of land interaction. However, we have seen the cloud tops warm significantly due to lack of energy source. Nevertheless, heavy rains continue to be reported across Northern Mindanao particularly near the cities of Cagayan de Oro and Iligan where have seen nearly 200mm of rainfall today! Southern Negros, Siquijor, Southern Cebu, and Bohol could see up to 100mm of rain as well by this evening. Those rains can produce widespread flooding, landslides, and flashfloods brought by rising waters in the rivers. Storm surges can also be a threat along the coast.

Aside from the rains, typhoon-force winds of up to 140kph are still possible, especially within 50km of the storm's center. Meanwhile, tropical-storm force winds of up to 100kph can extend as far as 120km away from the center so even Cebu City can see winds of 80kph.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Bopha/Pablo will continue moving northwestward and will move into Sulu Sea later this evening. It will move south of Panay Island by tomorrow morning but will still impact the island including the cities of Iloilo and Bacolod. Bopha will also start to slow down tomorrow and could even re-intensify a little bit before moving across Northern Palawan by tomorrow evening (Wednesday). As the steering layers really weaken by Wednesday and Thursday, Bopha is expected to slow down dramatically and will stay inside the Philippine Area of Responsibility through the weekend. However, once it gets into the South China Sea or the West Philippine Sea, we expect the system to start weakening as the waters there are much cooler.

We'll have another update tomorrow. Always remember to continue coordinating with the local officials especially if you are in low-lying areas, live near the rivers and coasts, or if you live in weak houses. Stay safe!
Issued (22 UTC) 6pm PhT 120412

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