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Text Update
Bopha continues to intensify and has just been upgraded into a Typhoon by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). JMA is keeping it as a Severe Tropical Storm with slightly weaker winds. Typhoon Bopha was last located approximately 1,220km east southeast of Palau or about 980km southeast of Yap. Bopha is moving west northwestward at 15kph.
Typhoon Watches have now been issued by the National Weather Service (Guam) for Palau and Yap. For the complete statement, please click HERE
IR Image from NRLMRY
Latest satellite image shows strong convective activity continuing with cold cloud tops right over the center. Microwave analysis (shown in Video) shows the eyewall becoming much more defined with a small eye trying to appear. Conditions are largely favorable for continued development and we also expect Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) to upgrade this system by tomorrow morning.
Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)
There is increasing agreement among computer models and forecast agencies regarding a track towards the Philippines. Our forecast track above closely resembles the consensus between JTWC and JMA. With that said, we think Bopha will start impacting Palau by Sunday morning with the worst conditions occurring between Sunday afternoon and Monday morning. Winds of up to 185kph and rains of up to 100mm are possible. We urge everyone here to prepare now!
As for the Philippines, Bopha is expected to enter the Philippine Area of Responsibility by Sunday evening and we expect PAGASA to assign the local name of "Bagyong Pablo" by that time. Bopha is then forecast to move into Eastern Visayas area by Wednesday morning as a strong Category 3 Typhoon. Please note that this is still 5 days away and large changes in the forecast can still occur. Nonetheless, if you are living in Eastern Visayas, we urge you to closely follow the progress of this system.
We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
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Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 113012
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