Tuesday, November 27, 2012

TS Bopha Update #4 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our Video Update for Tropical Storm Bohpa. Please scroll down below for our in-depth Text Update as well as our Forecast Track.

Text Update

Tropical Storm Bopha has moved very little today and continues to slowly develop over the Pacific. The system was last located approximately 410km southwest of Pohnpei or about 520km southeast of Chuuk. Maximum sustained winds remain at 65kph with gusts of up to 85kph. TS Bohpa is moving west northwestward at 2kph.

The National Weather Service in Guam continues to issue numerous Tropical Storm Warnings and Watches for Chuuk, Pohnpei, and surrounding islands and atolls for the threat of strong winds, heavy rains, and rough seas. In fact, an atoll southwest of Pohnpei and is very near the storm's center, has received nearly 100mm of rain in the past 24 hours alone. For the latest weather warnings and forecasts for the Federated States of Micronesia, please click HERE

IR Image from NRLMRY

Tropical Storm Bohpa continues to slowly organize under the favorable conditions in the region. A central dense overcast seems to be forming as strong convective activity continue to flare up in and around the low-level center. Radial outflow is also improving as wind shear remains weak in this area. As we've said before, we expect Bohpa to continue intensifying at a constant pace over the next few days and could even become a typhoon by as early as Thursday evening!

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

As for the track, we expect Bohpa to continue moving generally westward over the next few days, passing just south of Chuuk by tomorrow and could bring some rain showers in the islands there. The system will be passing well south of Guam by Friday so no direct effects expected over in that area expect for maybe rough waves. However, the islands of Yap and Palau should closely monitor Bohpa as it could threaten these areas as we move into the weekend. By this time, Bohpa could be an intensifying Category 1 typhoon so serious effects are possible.

For long-range forecasts, computer models continue to diverge by day 6-7. The GFS and ECMWF continue to show recurvature while the other models (NOGAPS, CMC) are showing a more westward track potentially impacting the Philippines. Right now, we still think the recurvature scenario is much more likely. However, since this is still too far away, we urge everyone in the region (Philippines) to continue closely monitoring the developments of Bohpa as large shifts in the forecast tracks are still possible.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (0930 UTC) 530pm PhT 112712

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