Thursday, October 11, 2012

Typhoon Prapiroon (Nina) Update #6 (w/ Video)

NOTE: Here is our latest Video Update on Typhoon Prapiroon. Scroll down below for our complete Text Update and Forecast Track.

Text Update

Typhoon Prapiroon (Bagyong Nina) continues to slowly intensify as it moves across the Philippine Sea. The system was last located approximately 660km east southeast of Basco, Batanes or about 780km south of Okinawa. Maximum sustained winds are now up to 165kph with gusts of up to 215kph. Prapiroon is moving west northwestward at 10kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest infra-red image shows that an eye is starting to become visible. It is still very rugged and partly cloud-filled. However, the recent trend suggests further improvement of Prapiroon's structure. The eye is surrounded by a band of convective activity, although partially weak on the northern periphery. Conditions are still favorable for further strengthening and we expect Prapiroon to become a Category 3 typhoon by tomorrow morning. The good news is that Prapiroon is still too far offshore to really directly impact any land.

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

We have made little to no change on our latest forecast track. We are still going with the consensus of a recurve to the northeast. However, we do have to note that a couple of computer models and at least one agency (Japan Meteorological Agency) is still showing a track towards Okinawa by early next week. With that said, it is pretty clear that there are still some uncertainties and disagreements with the forecasts for Prapiroon. While we are going with the majority of the models and are nearly similar with Joint Typhoon Warning Center, we have low confidence with the forecast.

We'll have another update tomorrow.
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 101112

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