Sunday, September 16, 2012

Typhoon Sanba Update #12

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NOTE: For the latest VIDEO UPDATE on Sanba issued an hour ago, please click HERE

Typhoon Sanba (Bagyong Karen) is now moving across the East China Sea and is aiming for the Korean Peninsula. Sanba was last located approximately 360km north of Okinawa or about 420km south southeast of Jeju Island in South Korea. Maximum sustained winds are at 175kph with gusts of up to 215kph making Sanba a Category 2 Typhoon. Sanba is moving northward at 30kph.

IR Image from NRLMRY

Latest satellite image shows a slowly degrading appearance of Sanba. The eye is still well-defined though and convective activity is still relatively strong. The overall organization, however, is starting to become asymmetrical and is becoming more sheared as upper-level winds start to increase in this region. Together with the increasing wind shear, water temperatures in the East China Sea are getting colder and will lead to more weakening overnight.

Radar from JMA

For now though, rains are still impacting parts of the Ryukyu Islands including Amami. Radar from JMA showing the eastern bands from the storm impacting Kyushu Island as well with rainfall amounts of about 50mm or so. Winds of around 80kph are also still being reported in many places. However, for the most part, we expect the weather to continue improving in Okinawa and nearby areas tonight and into tomorrow.

For more radar images, forecasts, and warnings from Japan, please click HERE (JMA)

Forecast Track (NOT OFFICIAL!)

Typhoon Sanba will continue moving quickly to the north and will be weakening along the way. It is forecast to pass 100km east of Jeju Island by 6am South Korea Time as a Category 1 Typhoon. By roughly 7 or 8am, Sanba is forecast to make landfall along the southern coast roughly 100km west of Busan/Pusan. Winds of 120kph to 150kph will threaten the coast lashing the area with the strongest winds between 6am and 12pm Monday (tomorrow). Upon making landfall, Sanba will rapidly weaken to a Tropical Storm as it passes 200km southeast of Seoul. Sanba will exit into the Sea of Japan by Monday afternoon and will be making its third and final landfall along the North Korean/Russian border by early Monday night/early Tuesday morning as a minimal tropical storm.

Along with the strong winds, the Korean Peninsula will also get strong waves and storm surges particularly along the western coast. Furthermore, heavy rains of up to 200mm are possible especially along the southeastern portions of South Korea. Showers associated with Sanba may also impact Kyushu and Western Honshu tonight and into tomorrow.

For the latest updates and warnings from South Korea, please click HERE (KMA)

We'll have another update tomorrow. Stay safe!
Issued (10 UTC) 6pm PhT 091612

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